News from the world of maths

Infectious diseases hardly ever disappear from the headlines. If it's not the disease itself that hits the news, then it's the vaccines with their potential side effects. It can be hard to tell the difference between scare mongering and responsible reporting, because media coverage rarely provides a look behind the scenes. How do scientists reach the conclusions they do? How do they predict how a particular disease will spread, and whether it is likely to mutate into a more dangerous strand? And how do they assess the impact of an intervention like vaccination, and make sure that a vaccine is safe?

Two answer these questions, we have put together a package of five articles, a podcast, and a classroom activity.

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Labels: epidemiology, Health and medicine, Latest news

Vaccination is an emotive business. The furore around the MMR vaccine and autism has shown that vaccination health scares can cause considerable damage: stop vaccinating, and epidemics are sure to follow. But how do scientists decide whether a vaccine and a vaccination strategy are effective and safe? We talk to Paddy Farrington, Professor of Statistics at the Open University. You can also read the accompanying article.

Listen to the podcast.

Labels: epidemiology, Health and medicine, podcast

Buses may be safer than babies, at least when it comes to swine flu. Preliminary results from an online flu survey suggest that contact with children poses one of the greatest swine flu risk factors, while the use of public transport seems surprisingly safe.

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Plus will soon bring you a package of articles on the maths behind swine flu. But first we would like to know what you think has been the best source of information about swine flu? Did the media do well reporting on the virus? What about government information? Or did you go and see your GP to find out what to do about swine flu? Please let us know by voting in this quick poll, or tell us in more detail what information you found useful, or a nuisance, by leaving a comment on this blog.

Labels: epidemiology, Health and medicine, Latest news

The media is buzzing with swine flu numbers. Latest government figures say that over 100,000 people in England came down with swine flu during the last week — that's almost twice the amount of the previous week, and up to five times higher than the seasonal flu figures recorded last winter. Twenty-six people in England have died of the disease.

But where do the numbers come from? Patients with swine flu symptoms are no longer tested in the lab or traced, so the published figures are estimates, rather than absolute numbers.

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Labels: epidemiology, Health and medicine, Latest news

Just over two weeks after the outbreak of swine flu, sorry, H1N1, most of us have come round to the idea that a pandemic doesn't always necessitate panic. The infection is spreading steadily, but in most people it's relatively mild and only a very small number of people have died outside Mexico. So were initial media reports just hype?

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Labels: epidemiology, Health and medicine, Latest news