risk
http://plus.maths.org/content/category/tags/risk
enUnderstanding uncertainty: Visualising probabilities
http://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-visualising-probabilities
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Mike Pearson and Ian Short </div>
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<img class="imagefield imagefield-field_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="http://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/abstractpics/5/19_oct_2011_-_1700/icon_risk.jpg?1319040008" /> </div>
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<p>Probabilities and statistics: they are everywhere, but they are hard to understand and can be counter-intuitive. So what's the best way of communicating them to an audience that doesn't have the time, desire, or background to get stuck into the numbers? This article explores modern visualisation techniques and finds that the right picture really can be worth a thousand words.</p>
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<p><em>Probabilities and statistics: they are everywhere, but they are hard to understand and can be counter-intuitive. So what's the best way of communicating them to an audience that doesn't have the time, desire, or background to get stuck into the numbers? Ian Short explores modern visualisation techniques and finds that the right picture really can be worth a thousand words. </em></p><p><a href="http://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-visualising-probabilities" target="_blank">read more</a></p>http://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-visualising-probabilities#commentsCMSprobabilityriskstatisticsuncertaintyunderstanding uncertaintyvisualisationMon, 31 Oct 2011 09:09:35 +0000mf3445572 at http://plus.maths.org/contentUnderstanding uncertainty: The big risk test
http://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-big-risk-test
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David Spiegelhalter </div>
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<img class="imagefield imagefield-field_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="http://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/abstractpics/5/8_jun_2011_-_1233/icon.jpg?1307532798" /> </div>
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<p>Do you think bungee jumping is riskier than smoking? Would you take a medicine with a 10% risk of serious side effects? Or board a plane with a 1% chance of crashing? Risk is a very complex topic, studied by researchers all over the world. In the Big Risk Test, which is now live as part of BBC Lab UK, we want to find out how people deal with risk, particularly to try and understand what makes people have such different opinions and feelings about life's chances.</p>
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<div class="rightimage" style="width: 170px"><img src="/sites/plus.maths.org/files/articles/2011/uu/bungee.jpg" alt="Bungee jumping" width="170" height="218" />
<p>How risky is this?</p>
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<p>Do you think bungee jumping is riskier than smoking? Would you take a medicine with a 10% risk of serious side effects? Or board a plane with a 1% chance of crashing?</p><p><a href="http://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-big-risk-test" target="_blank">read more</a></p>http://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-big-risk-test#commentsCMSriskunderstanding uncertaintyMon, 27 Jun 2011 09:20:02 +0000mf3445501 at http://plus.maths.org/contentMeasuring catastrophic risk
http://plus.maths.org/content/misinterpretation-risk-metrics
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Shane Latchman </div>
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<img class="imagefield imagefield-field_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="http://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/abstractpics/5/30%20Nov%202010%20-%2011%3A20/icon.jpg?1291116030" /> </div>
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<p>Insurance companies offer protection against rare but catastrophic events like hurricanes or earthquakes. But how do they work out the financial risks associated to these disasters? Shane Latchman investigates.</p>
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<h3>The notion of uncertainty</h3>
<p>In the early 19th century, the French mathematician <a href="http://www-history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/Biographies/Laplace.html">Pierre-Simon de Laplace</a> wrote of a concept he had been thinking about for some time. The concept became known as <em>Laplace's demon</em> and was a thought experiment which sought to clearly explain the existence of uncertainty. It is described in his <em>Essai Philosophique sur les Probabilités</em> (1814) as:
</p><p><a href="http://plus.maths.org/content/misinterpretation-risk-metrics" target="_blank">read more</a></p>http://plus.maths.org/content/misinterpretation-risk-metrics#commentsconfidence intervalearthquakesinsurancemathematical modellingprobabilityriskrisk analysisstatisticsThu, 23 Dec 2010 14:36:31 +0000mf3445360 at http://plus.maths.org/contentUnderstanding uncertainty: Small but lethal
http://plus.maths.org/content/os/issue55/features/risk/index
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David Spiegelhalter and Mike Pearson </div>
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Comparing and communicating small lethal risks is a tricky business, yet this is what many of us are faced with in our daily lives. One way of measuring these risks is to use a quantity called the micromort. <b>David Spiegelhalter</b> and <b>Mike Pearson</b> investigate. </div>
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<p><br /><br /></p><p><a href="http://plus.maths.org/content/os/issue55/features/risk/index" target="_blank">read more</a></p>http://plus.maths.org/content/os/issue55/features/risk/index#comments55CMSmedicine and healthmicromortriskunderstanding uncertaintyMon, 12 Jul 2010 15:10:39 +0000mf3445219 at http://plus.maths.org/contentWhat can birds tell us about flying through ash clouds?
http://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/may-aug10/birds/index
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<p>Why does a financial mathematician think about birds when trying to understand the grounding of aeroplanes after the Icelandic volcano eruption?</p> </div>
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<p>Why does a financial mathematician think about birds when trying to understand the grounding of aeroplanes after the Icelandic volcano eruption?</p><p><a href="http://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/may-aug10/birds/index" target="_blank">read more</a></p>http://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/may-aug10/birds/index#commentsfinancial mathematicsmathematical modellingriskuncertaintyMon, 24 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000mf3445235 at http://plus.maths.org/contentWhat are the odds?
http://plus.maths.org/content/what-are-odds
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A new Hands-On Risk and Probability Show for schools </div>
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<div class="pub_date">12/11/2009</div>
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<p>What are the chances of winning the lottery? How much of a football team's league position is due to luck and how much is due to skill?<p><a href="http://plus.maths.org/content/what-are-odds" target="_blank">read more</a></p>http://plus.maths.org/content/what-are-odds#commentsmathematical modellingmedicine and healthreaction-diffusion equationsriskThu, 12 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000plusadmin2830 at http://plus.maths.org/content