Permalink Submitted by Anonymous on August 21, 2015

If A doubles when the probability of B winning is slightly higher than 0.2 then B will accept yet A is likely to double their winnings. If B subsequently overtakes and doubles then A stands to lose an amount equal to their winnings regardless of whether they have doubled. So it is pretty obvious that A should double and B accept. Every experienced backgammon player knows this...

## It is flawed

If A doubles when the probability of B winning is slightly higher than 0.2 then B will accept yet A is likely to double their winnings. If B subsequently overtakes and doubles then A stands to lose an amount equal to their winnings regardless of whether they have doubled. So it is pretty obvious that A should double and B accept. Every experienced backgammon player knows this...