You haven't factored in the probability that Carol is already in a relationship, which would bias her receptivity to an approach. The common perception is that more attractive people are more likely to already be committed. If true, this would increase the odds of rejection and further discourage guys from making the attempt. This should be factored into your analysis.

Of course this assumption may not be valid. But that represents a separate research topic.

By submitting this form, you accept the Mollom privacy policy.