Nice analysis. Here's mine from last year:

Sorry it's a lot of rambling at the start - I do get to the probability thing eventually.
As you say it's very sensitive to the value of p. I just used the value of p from that match (even though I didn't like doing so) because p depends a lot on who's on the other side of the net, and hey, there were a lot of points in just that match :)

I note that your probability is *given* that they get to a fifth set in the first place.

An interesting side note: they drew each other in the first round again this year. What were the odds of that?! Isner won again (a bit quicker this time).

This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.