Turning to a real life case, I wonder about the relevancy of chaos to the Ebola outbreak and the CDC's confidence in USA healthcare system. Your last line is a beautiful assessment of what is wrong with their view. So many factors could influence what happens and they don't realize it could be overwhelmed just by sheer numbers of patients. And they dismiss it as not possible because of their confidence in the future. Recent events should show just how unprepared they are.