I'm inclined to agree and suggest going a bit deeper. The confusion between prior and posterior probabilities results from the fact that no decision is in fact made, however much we think we're seeing into what would happen were it made, so no new information is in fact ever learned. And that decision was never made because it was revoked before being implemented and nothing changes, including information. If a decision does change anything, then it can't be revoked or switched, at least not without cancelling the resulting information changes too.

In this crucial respect the two envelopes problem differs from Monty Hall (which some people compare it to), since in the latter the first decision does result in new information which the player can then use for their next. But switching doors doesn't mean they're revoking their first decision. They can't.

(When I finally hit the SAVE button, I can't change anything either. Oh well, here goes)

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