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Climate change: Does it all add up?
... to affect all of our lives over the next fifty years. The understanding and analysis of climate change is an area where mathematicians, ... measurements, there is a lot of statistical variation and uncertainty in the data that is being measured, so long term trends can be hard ...
Marianne  18 Jul 2018  16:36  2 comments

Understanding uncertainty: how psychic was Paul?
... This article is adapted from material on the Understanding Uncertainty website . England's performance in the World Cup last ...
Marianne  14 Jun 2018  15:11  0 comments

Bizarre conclusion from alcohol study
... heavy drinking. The confidence intervals [a measure of the uncertainty involved as indicated by the grey area around the curve] are very ... David Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory, Centre for Mathematical ...
Marianne  9 Mar 2018  13:05  2 comments

The philosophy of applied mathematics
... question of applicability, but it has been argued that this uncertainty over foundations has influenced the very practice of applying ... would have been on (a) survival, and (b) mating. While understanding cause and effect, and being able to count distinct objects, and ...
Marianne  19 Feb 2018  09:32  30 comments

Big Data
... and wellunderstood, with known levels of uncertainty. That's because they come from physical processes that, on the whole, scientists understand well. The real challenges of understanding and dealing with Big Data come from the biological sciences, the ... are now finding significant applications in our understanding of Big Data. A key example of this is the mathematics of ...
Marianne  12 Dec 2017  14:03  0 comments

A brief exploration of mathematical modelling
... In the first instance, models are used to extend scientific understanding. By modelling what is already known, some of what is currently ... of the models used at the time of the crash reduced all the uncertainty involved in calculating investment value to a single parameter. ...
Marianne  1 Nov 2017  16:01  0 comments

The logic of drug testing
... decisions. The following animation (from Understanding Uncertainty ) illustrates our example. For simplicity it looks at a ...
Marianne  9 Aug 2017  12:24  4 comments

'The mathematics lover's companion'
... under one of three main categories: number, shape and uncertainty. There is also a preface that includes Scheinerman's suggestions on ... most mathematicians and people who already have a good understanding of mathematics have an edge here. If you fall into this category ...
Marianne  7 Aug 2017  17:21  0 comments

Understanding uncertainty: How long will you live?
... This article is adapted from material on the Understanding Uncertainty website . None of us are going to last forever. Our ...
plusadmin  9 Feb 2017  15:37  6 comments

Understanding uncertainty: Small but lethal
... David Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge. Mike Pearson ... David and the rest of their team run the Understanding uncertainty website , which informs the public about all issues involving ...
Marianne  9 Feb 2017  15:26  17 comments