Search results

  1. Editorial

    ... David Spiegelhalter , Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge, has had a closer look at ... need to rigorously justify their claims and quantify the uncertainty involved in their models and conclusions. They can no longer pull ...

    plusadmin - 16 Jun 2010 - 12:56

  2. Hubble's top five scientific achievements

    ... to within a factor of two. The main reason for this large uncertainty was the fact that the determination of distances in astronomy is ... marks the spot for more information). Consequently, a true understanding of dark energy will require a combination of observational ...

    plusadmin - 13 Apr 2011 - 17:38 - 1 comment

  3. What can birds tell us about flying through ash clouds?

    ... concerned with how to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty. Now, there is a widely held view that rational people will always ... This is a good thing and is a consequence of a mathematical understanding of the risks. Ignore the mathematics and airline executives ...

    mf344 - 22 Jul 2010 - 10:53 - 0 comments

  4. The best medicine?

    ... also shows a 95% "confidence interval", which expresses the uncertainty about where the true risk lies. For most of the individual studies, ... a particular patient asking this question requires careful understanding of how individual characteristics help predict outcome. We really ...

    plusadmin - 1 Nov 2012 - 09:04 - 0 comments

  5. From restaurants to climate change

    ... to anything from investigating diners' tipping behaviour to understanding climate change and genetics. These days tips are ... is represented by the line, and the grey band indicates uncertainty about the line. Because size takes integer values, and we are ...

    plusadmin - 19 May 2010 - 17:01 - 0 comments

  6. From neurobiology to online gaming

    ... example by recognising statistical patterns and quantifying uncertainty using probabilities. The NNM programme grew out of the recognition ... is David Spiegelhalter , Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk and Senior Scientist at the Biostatistics Unit in the ...

    mf344 - 19 Jul 2012 - 12:29 - 0 comments

  7. Coincidence, correlation and chance

    ... pattern rather than randomness, certainty rather than uncertainty, existence rather than nonexistence, predator in the bushes rather ... is one way we're easily misled when it comes to our understanding of probability. The thing to remember is that rare things happen ...

    plusadmin - 18 May 2011 - 14:12 - 0 comments

  8. Plus leaves the classroom

    ... the unwary — how to communicate and evaluate risk and uncertainty, how to explain seeming paradoxes, how to avoid the common pitfalls ... greater choice of where to have their treatment (which meant understanding the perverse incentives caused by performance monitoring and just ...

    plusadmin - 16 Jun 2010 - 15:40 - 0 comments

  9. Winding numbers: Topography and topology II

    ... deformed to the other without crossing or For a deeper understanding of the problem, try researching the fundamental group . This ... fractions, dynamical systems, hyperbolic geometry, and uncertainty. Topology ...

    mf344 - 21 May 2011 - 17:51 - 3 comments

  10. Nobel mathematics

    ... a controlled process called programmed cell death . Understanding this process has great biological and medical importance - cancer ... work on how people make decisions in the face of uncertainty and risk. The other winner, Vernon Smith of George Mason ...

    plusadmin - 11 Jul 2011 - 19:00 - 0 comments