confidence interval
https://plus.maths.org/content/category/tags/confidenceinterval
en

Counting deaths: war as a statistical problem
https://plus.maths.org/content/countingdeadwarstatisticalprobelm
<div class="field fieldtypefilefield fieldfieldabsimg">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<img class="imagefield imagefieldfield_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/abstractpics/5/22_feb_2012__1525/icon.jpg?1329924349" /> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field fieldtypetext fieldfieldabstxt">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<p>How many people died? It's one of the first questions asked in a war or violent conflict, but it's one of the hardest to answer. In the chaos of war many deaths go unrecorded and all sides have an interest in distorting the figures. The best we can do is come up with estimates, but the trouble is that different statistical methods for doing this can produce vastly different results . So how do we know how different methods compare?</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>
How many people died? It's one of the first questions asked in a war
or violent conflict but it's one of the hardest to answer. In the chaos of war many deaths go unrecorded and all sides have an interest in
distorting the figures. </p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/countingdeadwarstatisticalprobelm" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/countingdeadwarstatisticalprobelm#comments
confidence interval
statistics
survey
uncertainty
Thu, 23 Feb 2012 09:35:09 +0000
mf344
5666 at https://plus.maths.org/content

Measuring catastrophic risk
https://plus.maths.org/content/misinterpretationriskmetrics
<div class="field fieldtypetext fieldfieldauthor">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
Shane Latchman </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field fieldtypefilefield fieldfieldabsimg">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<img class="imagefield imagefieldfield_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/abstractpics/5/30%20Nov%202010%20%2011%3A20/icon.jpg?1291116030" /> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field fieldtypetext fieldfieldabstxt">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<p>Insurance companies offer protection against rare but catastrophic events like hurricanes or earthquakes. But how do they work out the financial risks associated to these disasters? Shane Latchman investigates.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<h3>The notion of uncertainty</h3>
<p>In the early 19th century, the French mathematician <a href="http://wwwhistory.mcs.stand.ac.uk/Biographies/Laplace.html">PierreSimon de Laplace</a> wrote of a concept he had been thinking about for some time. The concept became known as <em>Laplace's demon</em> and was a thought experiment which sought to clearly explain the existence of uncertainty. It is described in his <em>Essai Philosophique sur les ProbabilitÃ©s</em> (1814) as:
</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/misinterpretationriskmetrics" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/misinterpretationriskmetrics#comments
confidence interval
earthquakes
insurance
mathematical modelling
probability
risk
risk analysis
statistics
Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:36:31 +0000
mf344
5360 at https://plus.maths.org/content

Evaluating a medical treatment  how do you know it works?
https://plus.maths.org/content/evaluatingmedicaltreatmenthowdoyouknowitworks
<div class="field fieldtypefilefield fieldfieldabsimg">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<img class="imagefield imagefieldfield_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/latestnews/janapr10/rct/icon.jpg?1267574400" /> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field fieldtypetext fieldfieldabstxt">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
How to evaluate medical treatments </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="pub_date">03/03/2010</div> <! plusimport > <! END OF FILE: newinclude/news_header.html > <br clear="all"></br><div style="position: relative; left: 50%; width: 70%"><font size="2"><i>Back to the <a href="/latestnews/janapr10/evidence_package/index.html">What's the best medicine package</a><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/evaluatingmedicaltreatmenthowdoyouknowitworks" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/evaluatingmedicaltreatmenthowdoyouknowitworks#comments
confidence interval
medical statistics
medicine and health
random trial
randomised controlled trial
Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000
plusadmin
2592 at https://plus.maths.org/content

Understanding uncertainty: Breast screening, a statistical controversy
https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintybreastscreeningstatisticalcontroversy
<div class="field fieldtypetext fieldfieldauthor">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
David Spiegelhalter </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field fieldtypefilefield fieldfieldabsimg">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<img class="imagefield imagefieldfield_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/abstractpics/5Sun%2C%2020100425%2017%3A05/icon6.jpg?1272211507" /> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field fieldtypetext fieldfieldabstxt">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<p>One in nine women will get breast cancer in her lifetime, and it seems sensible to screen women for breast cancer to treat them as early as possible. But, as <strong>David Spiegelhalter</strong> explains, screening is a controversial issue.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="pub_date">December 2009</div>
<! plusimport >
<br clear="all" />
<! #include virtual="../../include/gifd_here_box.html" >
<! #echo var="risk" >
<div style="position: relative; left: 50%; width: 70%"><font size="2"><i>Back to the <a href="/latestnews/janapr10/evidence_package/index.html">What's the best medicine package</a><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintybreastscreeningstatisticalcontroversy" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintybreastscreeningstatisticalcontroversy#comments
53
cancer
CMS
confidence interval
medical statistics
medicine and health
public understanding of mathematics
risk analysis
statistics
understanding uncertainty
Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000
plusadmin
5165 at https://plus.maths.org/content

Career interview: Financial Engineer
https://plus.maths.org/content/careerinterviewfinancialengineer
<div class="field fieldtypetext fieldfieldauthor">
<div class="fieldlabel">author: </div>
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
Marc West </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field fieldtypefilefield fieldfieldabsimg">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<img class="imagefield imagefieldfield_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/issue46/interview/icon.jpg?1204329600" /> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="pub_date">March 2008</div>
<! plusimport >
<! FILE: include/rightfig.html >
<! END OF FILE: include/rightfig.html >
<p>"I was one of the lucky people," said Rupa Patel, reflecting on her childhood. "I knew I liked maths from a very early age."</p>
<p>For Rupa, maths was never hard work â€” indeed, it was something that she always enjoyed doing.</p>
<div class="rightimage" style="width: 280px;"><img src="/issue46/interview/Rupa.jpg" alt="Rupa Patel" width="280" height="210" />
<p>Rupa Patel</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/careerinterviewfinancialengineer" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/careerinterviewfinancialengineer#comments
46
Business & Money
career interview
confidence interval
differential equation
financial mathematics
financial modelling
mathematical modelling
partial differential equation
risk analysis
uncertainty
Sat, 01 Mar 2008 00:00:00 +0000
plusadmin
2435 at https://plus.maths.org/content

Understanding uncertainty: The Premier League
https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintypremierleague
<div class="field fieldtypetext fieldfieldauthor">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
David Spiegelhalter and Mike Pearson </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field fieldtypefilefield fieldfieldabsimg">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<img class="imagefield imagefieldfield_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/abstractpics/5/June%2016%2C%202010/icon6.jpg?1276687522" /> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field fieldtypetext fieldfieldabstxt">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<p>This is the second part of our new column on risk and uncertainty. David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge, continues examining league tables using the Premier League as an example. Find out just how much — or how little — these simple rankings can tell you.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="pub_date">March 2008</div>
<! plusimport >
<br clear="all" />
<! #include virtual="../../include/gifd_here_box.html" >
<! #echo var="risk" >
<p> <! FILE: include/rightfig.html ></p>
<div class="rightimage" style="width: 295px;"><img src="/issue46/risk/football.jpg" alt="A footballer" width="295" height="407" />
<p>Skill or chance?</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintypremierleague" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintypremierleague#comments
46
CMS
confidence interval
editorial
football
mathematics in sport
probability
probability distribution
risk analysis
statistical distribution
statistical estimation
statistical prediction
statistics
uncertainty
understanding uncertainty
Sat, 01 Mar 2008 00:00:00 +0000
plusadmin
5145 at https://plus.maths.org/content

Body count
https://plus.maths.org/content/bodycount
<div class="field fieldtypefilefield fieldfieldabsimg">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
<img class="imagefield imagefieldfield_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/latestnews/sepdec06/iraq/icon.jpg?1161558000" /> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field fieldtypetext fieldfieldabstxt">
<div class="fielditems">
<div class="fielditem odd">
A statistical study into Iraq war deaths sparks controversy </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="pub_date">23/10/2006</div>
<! plusimport ><br clear="all"></br>
<! END OF FILE: newinclude/news_header.html >
<p>Although we are bombarded with statistics every day, we rarely hear about the methods used to compile them. Recently, though, a rare discussion of statistical methodology did spring up when US President George W. Bush deemed as "pretty well discredited" a study into the number of deaths in Iraq since the US led invasion in March 2003. The Iraqi government joined Bush in his criticism, calling
the figures "inflated" and "far from the truth".</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/bodycount" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/bodycount#comments
confidence interval
mathematics in the media
statistics
Sun, 22 Oct 2006 23:00:00 +0000
plusadmin
2489 at https://plus.maths.org/content