risk
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en

What are sigma levels?
https://plus.maths.org/content/whataresigmalevels0
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<p>Find out how scientists, from physicists to geneticists, measure their confidence in their results.</p>
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<p>When physicists at CERN announce their results, there is
always a lot of talk about <em>sigma levels</em>. But what exactly are
they? </p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/whataresigmalevels0" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/whataresigmalevels0#comments
pvalue
probability
risk
sigma level
uncertainty
University of Cambridge
Fri, 18 Dec 2015 17:26:49 +0000
mf344
6508 at https://plus.maths.org/content

What are sigma levels?
https://plus.maths.org/content/whataresigmalevels
<div class="rightimage" style="maxwidth: 350px;"><img src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/podcast/spiegelhalter.png" alt="David Spiegelhalter" width="350px" height="200" /><p></p></div>
<p>Whenever physicists at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN announce their results, there is a lot of talk of <em>sigma levels</em> â€” numbers that measure their confidence in the results. But what exactly do those sigma levels mean? Why do theoretical physicists require much higher sigma levels that medical scientists? And how do sigma levels relate to socalled <em>pvalues</em>?</p><p><a href='https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/podcast/spiegelhalter.mp3'>Listen to our interview with David Spiegelhalter</a></p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/whataresigmalevels" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/whataresigmalevels#comments
pvalue
probability
risk
sigma level
uncertainty
University of Cambridge
Wed, 16 Dec 2015 14:02:41 +0000
mf344
6498 at https://plus.maths.org/content

Understanding uncertainty: Visualising probabilities
https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintyvisualisingprobabilities
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Mike Pearson and Ian Short </div>
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<img class="imagefield imagefieldfield_abs_img" width="100" height="100" alt="" src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/abstractpics/5/19_oct_2011__1700/icon_risk.jpg?1319040008" /> </div>
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<p>Probabilities and statistics: they are everywhere, but they are hard to understand and can be counterintuitive. So what's the best way of communicating them to an audience that doesn't have the time, desire, or background to get stuck into the numbers? This article explores modern visualisation techniques and finds that the right picture really can be worth a thousand words.</p>
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<p><em>Probabilities and statistics: they are everywhere, but they are hard to understand and can be counterintuitive. So what's the best way of communicating them to an audience that doesn't have the time, desire, or background to get stuck into the numbers? Ian Short explores modern visualisation techniques and finds that the right picture really can be worth a thousand words. </em></p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintyvisualisingprobabilities" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintyvisualisingprobabilities#comments
CMS
probability
risk
statistics
uncertainty
understanding uncertainty
visualisation
Mon, 31 Oct 2011 09:09:35 +0000
mf344
5572 at https://plus.maths.org/content

Understanding uncertainty: The big risk test
https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintybigrisktest
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David Spiegelhalter </div>
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<p>Do you think bungee jumping is riskier than smoking? Would you take a medicine with a 10% risk of serious side effects? Or board a plane with a 1% chance of crashing? Risk is a very complex topic, studied by researchers all over the world. In the Big Risk Test, which is now live as part of BBC Lab UK, we want to find out how people deal with risk, particularly to try and understand what makes people have such different opinions and feelings about life's chances.</p>
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<div class="rightimage" style="width: 170px"><img src="/sites/plus.maths.org/files/articles/2011/uu/bungee.jpg" alt="Bungee jumping" width="170" height="218" />
<p>How risky is this?</p>
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<p>Do you think bungee jumping is riskier than smoking? Would you take a medicine with a 10% risk of serious side effects? Or board a plane with a 1% chance of crashing?</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintybigrisktest" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/understandinguncertaintybigrisktest#comments
CMS
risk
understanding uncertainty
Mon, 27 Jun 2011 09:20:02 +0000
mf344
5501 at https://plus.maths.org/content

Measuring catastrophic risk
https://plus.maths.org/content/misinterpretationriskmetrics
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Shane Latchman </div>
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<p>Insurance companies offer protection against rare but catastrophic events like hurricanes or earthquakes. But how do they work out the financial risks associated to these disasters? Shane Latchman investigates.</p>
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<h3>The notion of uncertainty</h3>
<p>In the early 19th century, the French mathematician <a href="http://wwwhistory.mcs.stand.ac.uk/Biographies/Laplace.html">PierreSimon de Laplace</a> wrote of a concept he had been thinking about for some time. The concept became known as <em>Laplace's demon</em> and was a thought experiment which sought to clearly explain the existence of uncertainty. It is described in his <em>Essai Philosophique sur les ProbabilitÃ©s</em> (1814) as:
</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/misinterpretationriskmetrics" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
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confidence interval
earthquakes
insurance
mathematical modelling
probability
risk
risk analysis
statistics
Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:36:31 +0000
mf344
5360 at https://plus.maths.org/content

Understanding uncertainty: Small but lethal
https://plus.maths.org/content/os/issue55/features/risk/index
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David Spiegelhalter and Mike Pearson </div>
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Comparing and communicating small lethal risks is a tricky business, yet this is what many of us are faced with in our daily lives. One way of measuring these risks is to use a quantity called the micromort. <b>David Spiegelhalter</b> and <b>Mike Pearson</b> investigate. </div>
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<p><br /><br /></p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/os/issue55/features/risk/index" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
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CMS
medicine and health
micromort
risk
understanding uncertainty
Mon, 12 Jul 2010 15:10:39 +0000
mf344
5219 at https://plus.maths.org/content

What can birds tell us about flying through ash clouds?
https://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/mayaug10/birds/index
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<p>Why does a financial mathematician think about birds when trying to understand the grounding of aeroplanes after the Icelandic volcano eruption?</p> </div>
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<p>Why does a financial mathematician think about birds when trying to understand the grounding of aeroplanes after the Icelandic volcano eruption?</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/mayaug10/birds/index" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/mayaug10/birds/index#comments
financial mathematics
mathematical modelling
risk
uncertainty
Mon, 24 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000
mf344
5235 at https://plus.maths.org/content

What are the odds?
https://plus.maths.org/content/whatareodds
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A new HandsOn Risk and Probability Show for schools </div>
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<div class="pub_date">12/11/2009</div>
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<p>What are the chances of winning the lottery? How much of a football team's league position is due to luck and how much is due to skill?<p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/whatareodds" target="_blank">read more</a></p>
https://plus.maths.org/content/whatareodds#comments
mathematical modelling
medicine and health
reactiondiffusion equations
risk
Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000
plusadmin
2830 at https://plus.maths.org/content