election
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enHow to predict an election
https://plus.maths.org/content/how-predict-election
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<p>Forecasting election results is a sophisticated business.</p>
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Most of us have a vague idea of how you might go about predicting the result of
this week's general election:
go out and ask a large and random collection of
people who they intend to vote for. The share of the vote each party
gets in your sample of people reflects the share of the vote you can
expect nationally.</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/how-predict-election" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/how-predict-election#commentsBayesian modelelectionvotingTue, 05 May 2015 10:15:49 +0000mf3446362 at https://plus.maths.org/contentElection perfection?
https://plus.maths.org/content/election-perfection
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<p>Why a perfect voting system is mathematically impossible.</p>
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<div class="rightimage" style="max-width:300px;"><img src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/news/2015/election/election.jpg" width="300" height="310" alt="UK" /><p>Will you vote? </p> </div>
<p>It's just over a week until the general election and at this stage you'd be forgiven for feeling sick and tired of it. There is, however, an interesting bit of maths behind voting that is fun to think about.</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/election-perfection" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/election-perfection#commentsArrow's theoremelectionFP-top-storyvotingvoting systemsWed, 29 Apr 2015 09:19:47 +0000mf3446361 at https://plus.maths.org/contentMaths in a minute: Arrow's theorem
https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-arrows-theorem
<p>Is there a perfect voting system? In the 1950s the economist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Arrow">Kenneth
Arrow</a> asked himself this question and found that the answer is no, at
least in the setting he imagined.</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-arrows-theorem" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-arrows-theorem#commentsArrow's theoremelectionvotingvoting systemsWed, 29 May 2013 12:28:03 +0000mf3445861 at https://plus.maths.org/contentWhich voting system is best?
https://plus.maths.org/content/which-voting-system-best
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<p>With the day of the referendum on the UK voting system drawing nearer, Tony Crilly uses a toy example to compare the first past the post, AV and Condorcet voting systems, and revisits a famous mathematical theorem which shows that there is nothing obvious about voting.</p>
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<p><em>With the day of the referendum on the UK voting system drawing nearer, Tony Crilly uses a toy example to compare the first past the post, AV and Condorcet voting systems, and revisits a famous mathematical theorem which shows that there is nothing obvious about voting.</em></p>
<div class="rightimage" style="width: 333px;"><img src="https://plus.maths.org/content/sites/plus.maths.org/files/news/2011/vote/istock_scale.jpg" alt="Choosing the winner" width="333" height="283" /><p>How to choose a winner?</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/which-voting-system-best" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/which-voting-system-best#commentsArrow's theoremCondorcet paradoxelectionvotingWed, 27 Apr 2011 10:12:26 +0000mf3445478 at https://plus.maths.org/contentA formula for Europe
https://plus.maths.org/content/formula-europe
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<p>When you try to put democracy into action you quickly run into tricky maths problems. This is what happened to Andrew Duff, rapporteur for the European Constitutional Affairs Committee, who was charged with finding a fair way of allocating seats of the European Parliament to Member States. Wisely, he went to ask the experts: last year he approached mathematicians at the University of Cambridge to help come up with a solution. A committee of mathematicians from all over Europe was promptly formed and today it has published its recommendation.</p>
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<p>When you try to put democracy into action you quickly run into tricky maths problems. This is what happened to <a href="http://www.andrewduff.eu/en/">Andrew Duff</a>, Liberal Democrat MEP for the East of England. In his role as <em>rapporteur</em> for the European Constitutional Affairs Committee, Duff was charged with recommending a fair way of allocating seats of the European Parliament to Member States. Wisely, he went to ask the experts: last year he approached mathematicians at the University of Cambridge to help come up with a solution.<p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/formula-europe" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/formula-europe#commentselectionfair divisionThu, 10 Mar 2011 17:01:39 +0000mf3445442 at https://plus.maths.org/contentMaking sense of election statistics
https://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/jan-apr10/electstats/index
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Tonight, in the final televised debate ahead of the election, the three main party leaders will talk about the economy, the recession, public sector debt, spending or cuts, and more. All will use statistics to back up their points or to pull apart their opponents' arguments. But how can we work out whether to believe the figures and what do they really mean?
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<p> </p><div class="rightimage" style="width: 350px;"><img src="/latestnews/jan-apr10/election/iStock_poll.jpg" alt="Polling station" width="350" height="263" /></div> <p>Tonight, in the final televised debate ahead of the election, the three main party leaders will talk about the economy, the recession, public sector debt, spending or cuts, and more. All will use statistics to back up their points or to pull apart their opponents' arguments. But how can we work out whether to believe the figures and what do they really mean?</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/jan-apr10/electstats/index" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/jan-apr10/electstats/index#commentselectionstatisticsWed, 28 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000mf3445232 at https://plus.maths.org/contentElectoral impossibilities
https://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/jan-apr10/election/index
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<p>One advantage of the UK voting system is that nobody could possibly fail to understand how it works. However, the disadvantages are well-known. Differently sized constituencies mean that the party in government doesn't necessarily have the largest share of the vote. The first-past-the-post system turns the election into a two-horse race, which leaves swathes of the population un-represented, forces tactical voting, and turns election campaigns into mud-slinging contests.</p>
<p>There are many alternative voting systems, but is there a perfect one? The answer, in a mathematical sense, is no.</p>
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One advantage of the UK voting system is that nobody could possibly fail to understand how it works. Everybody has one vote, in every constituency the candidate with most votes wins, and the party that wins the majority of constituencies goes on to form the government. Simple.</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/jan-apr10/election/index" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/os/latestnews/jan-apr10/election/index#commentsCondorcet paradoxCondorcet winnerelectionThu, 08 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000plusadmin5212 at https://plus.maths.org/contentDoes the Iranian election stand up to statistics?
https://plus.maths.org/content/does-iranian-election-stand-statistics
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A statistical test applied to the election results </div>
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<div class="pub_date">07/07/2009</div>
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<p>Protests against the Iranian election results on the streets of Teheran in June 2009. Photo: <a href='http://www.flickr.com/people/14438701@N00'>Shahram Sharif</a>.</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/does-iranian-election-stand-statistics" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/does-iranian-election-stand-statistics#commentsBenford's LawelectionstatisticsMon, 06 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000plusadmin2529 at https://plus.maths.org/contentUnderstanding uncertainty: What was the probability of Obama winning?
https://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-what-was-probability-obama-winning
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David Spiegelhalter </div>
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<p>This may seem like an odd question — after all, he’s won — but it opens up some deep philosophical issues surrounding probability. <strong>David Spiegelhalter</strong> investigates how probability can be defined.</p>
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<div class="pub_date">December 2008</div>
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<div align="center" style="margin-right:auto;margin-left:auto;width:600; font-size:15; border: #9a7a9f 2px solid; padding:5px;">This article is adapted from material soon to appear on the <a href="http://understandinguncertainty.org/">Understanding Uncertainty website</a>.</div>
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<p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-what-was-probability-obama-winning" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-what-was-probability-obama-winning#comments49Bayesian modelCMSeditorialelectionfrequencyprobabilitystatisticsunderstanding uncertaintyMon, 01 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000plusadmin5152 at https://plus.maths.org/contentA quick guide to voting
https://plus.maths.org/content/quick-guide-voting
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A look at different voting systems </div>
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<div class="pub_date">01/11/2008</div>
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<p>With US election week upon us, we thought you might appreciate a look at alternatives to the first-past-the-post system used to elect the US President and Congress, as well as the UK g<p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/quick-guide-voting" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/quick-guide-voting#commentselectionproportional representationSat, 01 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0000plusadmin2816 at https://plus.maths.org/contentEditorial
https://plus.maths.org/content/editorial-7
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<p>Election issues</p>
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<div class="pub_date">September 2008</div>
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<h3>Election issues</h3>
<p>Whenever major elections come around public attention swings, albeit briefly, to a mathematical aspect of democracy: how to devise a voting system that reflects the true "will of the people".<p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/editorial-7" target="_blank">read more</a></p>48Arrow's theoremCondorcet paradoxCondorcet winnereditorialelectionvotingvoting paradoxvoting systemsSun, 31 Aug 2008 23:00:00 +0000plusadmin4904 at https://plus.maths.org/contentMathematics and democracy: Approving a president
https://plus.maths.org/content/mathematics-and-democracy-approving-president
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Steven J. Brams </div>
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Much criticism has been levelled at the US voting system, and with this being election year, we're bound to hear more of it. In this article <b>Steven J. Brams</b> proposes an alternative voting system that could help make things more democratic. </div>
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<div class="pub_date">September 2008</div>
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<p><i>This article is adapted from the first chapters of Steven Brams' book, <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8566.html">Mathematics and Democracy</a>, published by Princeton University Press and reproduced here with kind permission. The book is <a href="/issue48/reviews/book2">reviewed</a> in this issue of Plus</i>.</p><p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/mathematics-and-democracy-approving-president" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/mathematics-and-democracy-approving-president#comments48Condorcet paradoxCondorcet winnerelectionvotingvoting systemsSun, 31 Aug 2008 23:00:00 +0000plusadmin2340 at https://plus.maths.org/contentEditorial
https://plus.maths.org/content/editorial-5
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<div class="pub_date">March 2008</div>
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<h3>The league table lottery</h3>
<p>We all know that statistical claims made by interested parties are to be taken with a pinch of salt. Some people even take their healthy mistrust of numbers to extremes, and reject all such claims, even robust ones, out of hand.<p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/editorial-5" target="_blank">read more</a></p>46editorialelectionleague tablemathematics and the environmentprobabilitypublic understanding of mathematicsstatisticsSat, 01 Mar 2008 00:00:00 +0000plusadmin4902 at https://plus.maths.org/contentOuter space: How to rig an election
https://plus.maths.org/content/outer-space-how-rig-election
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John D. Barrow </div>
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It's easier than you think </div>
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<div class="pub_date">March 2008</div>
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<p>You will be surprised how often you are engaged in voting. What film shall we go to see? What TV channel shall be watch? Where shall we go on holiday? What's the best make of fridge to buy?<p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/outer-space-how-rig-election" target="_blank">read more</a></p>https://plus.maths.org/content/outer-space-how-rig-election#comments46electionouterspaceSat, 01 Mar 2008 00:00:00 +0000plusadmin4801 at https://plus.maths.org/contentEditorial
https://plus.maths.org/content/pluschat-11
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<p>Stirring the electoral soup</p>
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<div class="pub_date">May 2005</div>
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<h2>Stirring the electoral soup</h2>
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<p>The opinion pollster's job has been likened to that of a chef tasting soup: it is more important to stir thoroughly than to take a large spoonful.<p><a href="https://plus.maths.org/content/pluschat-11" target="_blank">read more</a></p>35biaseditorialelectionsamplingvotingSat, 30 Apr 2005 23:00:00 +0000plusadmin4889 at https://plus.maths.org/content