An almighty coincidence

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An almighty coincidence

December 2007

 

Imagine picking the four hymn numbers out of a hat. First note that four-hymn combinations with one 1-digit number and three 3-digit numbers come in four types: the one digit number can occur in first, second, third or last place of the selection. So the overall chance of picking such a combination is equal to:

 

Chance of picking a combination with 1-digit number in 1st place
+ chance of picking a combination with 1-digit number in 2nd place
+ chance of picking a combination with 1-digit number in 3rd place
+ chance of picking a combination with 1-digit number in 4th place.

Each of the terms in this sum is equal to 9/999×900/999×900/999×900/999, so the overall chance of picking four hymn numbers such that one of them has 1 digit and the others have three digits is 9/999×(900/999)3×4=0.0263.

Now for the chance of picking a combination with two 2-digit numbers and two 3-digit numbers. There are 6 ways in which to choose the positions of the two 2-digit numbers within the string of four numbers, so this time the selection comes in 6 different types:

  • 2233;
  • 3322;
  • 2332;
  • 3223;
  • 2323;
  • 3232.

The chance of picking a combination of each individual type is (90/999)2×(900/999)2, so the overall chance is $$(90/999)^2 \times (900/999)^2 \times 6 = 0.0395$

In general, the number of ways you can choose a set of k positions within a sequence of length n is n!k!(nk)!, where n!=n×(n1)×...×2×1. In our examples, we first had n=4 with k=1, giving 4!1!3!=4, and then n=4 with k=2, giving 4!2!2!=6.

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