In the rainfalls example, why don't you say in the third year (and any year thereafter) the rain could equally likely have been more than, or less than, the rainfall of the record year so far. So there always is a probability of 1/2 that any year was a record year.?
In the rainfalls example, why don't you say in the third year (and any year thereafter) the rain could equally likely have been more than, or less than, the rainfall of the record year so far. So there always is a probability of 1/2 that any year was a record year.?