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Find out why the formula we use to work out conditional probabilities is true!
"We can easily construct a Turing Machine (program) that halts for the first few inputs, loops on the next inputs for a lot more inputs, halts on the next inputs for even more inputs etc. so the chance that it halts fluctuates between 1/3 and 2/3, depending on how many inputs you consider. It diverges rather than converges."
You are supposing an (impossible) uniform distribution in a countable set. Longer inputs have smaller weights.