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I have been doing some research on calculating fair odds by expected goals, poisson distribution and placing value bets lately and would like to recommend the following articles (for beginners like myself):
1. footytradingposts.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/calculating-goal-expectancy.html
2. footytradingposts.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/poisson-for-dummies.html
3. soccerwidow.com/betting-maths/tutorial/calculation-of-odds-probability-and-deviation/