Add new comment

Permalink

With the drug testing, they now do A and B samples - so if sample A comes back positive, they then test the B sample. This is an added layer to prevent the innocent being found guilty, but I guess it comes down to what made them test positive in the first place. If it's a simple dice-roll random chance thing, then the B sample is 95% likely to then prove a wrongly accused person not-guilty - but if it's something else (perhaps the drug test looks for markers in their urine which usually signify drug taking but in 5% of the population is natural), then they're still in trouble!

If it's the first case, then with a second test your 590 athletes who test positive in sample A (495 innocent, 95 guilty) becomes 115 (25 innocent 90 guilty) which gives 78% chance of getting the guilty. A bit more palatable.

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and email addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a href hreflang> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul type> <ol start type> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Want facts and want them fast? Our Maths in a minute series explores key mathematical concepts in just a few words.

  • What do chocolate and mayonnaise have in common? It's maths! Find out how in this podcast featuring engineer Valerie Pinfield.

  • Is it possible to write unique music with the limited quantity of notes and chords available? We ask musician Oli Freke!

  • How can maths help to understand the Southern Ocean, a vital component of the Earth's climate system?

  • Was the mathematical modelling projecting the course of the pandemic too pessimistic, or were the projections justified? Matt Keeling tells our colleagues from SBIDER about the COVID models that fed into public policy.

  • PhD student Daniel Kreuter tells us about his work on the BloodCounts! project, which uses maths to make optimal use of the billions of blood tests performed every year around the globe.