Juniper

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 mathematics and statistics have been at the forefront of the fight against the disease. We are pleased to be part of JUNIPER, the Joint University Pandemic and Epidemic Response modelling consortium. JUNIPER comprises academics from the universities of Cambridge, Warwick, Bristol, Exeter, Oxford, Manchester, and Lancaster, who are using a range of mathematical and statistical techniques to address pressing question about the control of COVID-19. The articles listed here are part of our collaboration with JUNIPER and you can find out more about the work of other JUNIPER members on their website.

What can we expect from a disease for which natural or vaccine induced immunity wanes?

How long does it take for one person to infect another?

To work out the famous R number you need to know the time between infections.

The doubling time for the Omicron variant seems to be scarily fast. But how do you calculate it?

Can you capture people's behaviour in epidemiological models?

What's a quality adjusted life year, or QALY?

Should we again reduce our social contacts? Is vaccinating 12-to-15-year-olds effective? What about boosters? The ready reckoner helps provide some answers.

What can we expect from the pandemic this winter and autumn?

What can last year's experiences tell us about the coming academic year?

Hear from the epidemiologists that have been fighting the pandemic in our special podcast series.

What do you actually do when you are modelling the COVID-19 pandemic? Find out with epidemiologist Mike Tildesley in our new podcast series.

Hear from the epidemiologists who have devoted their lives to fighting the pandemic.

Lateral flow tests have become a common feature in our lives. What impact can they have on managing COVID-19?

As the Delta variant is worrying the UK, researchers from the JUNIPER consortium have published all they know about it.

When you receive a positive test result for a disease, the chance you actually have it depends on how common the disease is.

Can the virus that causes COVID-19 mutate into a vaccine-resistant strain? And if yes, what would this mean for our vaccination strategy?

Trying to work out the real time incidence of a disease in the middle of pandemic has never been done before, but the team behind the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey have developed a way to do just that.

Where have the COVID-19 vaccines got us so far and where we are likely to be when the rollout is complete?

What's the safest way to reopen schools? And can testing make things better?

When it comes to loosening COVID restrictions all eyes are usually on R — but it's also important to take account of prevalence.

What's it like advising government on the maths behind COVID-19? Find out with epidemiologist Julia Gog in this new podcast series.

Plus is proud to join forces with leading epidemiologists from the JUNIPER consortium.

Modelling shows that your choice of how many households you bubble with this Christmas can make a real difference to the spread COVID-19.

Modelling shows that old and vulnerable people should be prioritised.

We can't say for sure, but everything depends on how many people agree to be vaccinated.

Are they safe? Are they effective? Will they stop the pandemic? Find out with our FAQ informed by experts.

Yes the approved vaccines are safe. If you balance the risks, then taking the vaccine is much safer than taking your chances with COVID-19.

Because the vaccine may not stop transmission of the virus.

The efficacy of vaccines is estimated from trials, using statistical techniques.

Like any medical drug, vaccines are tested in large-scale randomised controlled trials.

We are all longing to go into a lower tier, but this can come at a high price later on.

What can maths tell us about how to make universities safe from COVID-19?

We all now know about R, but sometimes it can be good to consider another number: the growth rate of an epidemic.

We explore why you need to be extremely careful when combining the reproduction ratios of a disease in different settings, such as hospitals and the community.

What is herd immunity and what does it have to do with a number called R0?

How do mathematical models of COVID-19 work and should we believe them? We talk to an epidemiologist, who has been working flat out to inform the government, to find out more.