List by Author: David Spiegelhalter and Mike Pearson
Would you prefer a game with a 90% chance of winning, or one with a 10% chance of losing? You might scratch your head and say it's the same thing, and you'd be right, but research has shown that people's perception of risk is surprisingly vulnerable to the way it's presented. In this article David Spiegelhalter and Mike Pearson explore how risk can be spun and there's an interactive animation for you to have a go yourself.
This is the second part of our new column on risk and uncertainty. David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge, continues examining league tables using the Premier League as an example. Find out just how much — or how little — these simple rankings can tell you.
League tables are controversial and for good reason. Few things are simple enough to be measured by a single outcome like, for example, the number of exam passes or successful heart operations. But even if we do accept a single yardstick, we haven't yet reckoned with chance, which by itself can produce apparent patterns to delight any tabloid editor.
Teo tells us about his work in artificial intelligence, his travels around the world, and how inspiration sometimes strikes in the pub.
Clouds make the weather, yet their detail isn't taken into account in weather forecasts. Artificial intelligence might be able to help.
Predicting the weather is hard. With more data and computing power becoming available, artificial intelligence can help.
How does your phone know what the weather's going to be like?
How a little insect can cause chaos.