Shining a light on COVID modelling
There have been accusations that the modelling projecting the course of the pandemic was too pessimistic. Are they justified?
Dr Sam Moore is a lecturer in Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Lancaster University and a member of the JUNIPER network. His research involves modelling the spread of infectious disease and, during the COVID-19 pandemic, his work was used to inform the UK government’s national Covid-19 vaccination strategy.
There have been accusations that the modelling projecting the course of the pandemic was too pessimistic. Are they justified?
Are they safe? Are they effective? Will they stop the pandemic? Find out with our FAQ informed by experts.
We can't say for sure, but everything depends on how many people agree to be vaccinated.
Modelling shows that old and vulnerable people should be prioritised.
Like any medical drug, vaccines are tested in large-scale randomised controlled trials.
The efficacy of vaccines is estimated from trials, using statistical techniques.
Because the vaccine may not stop transmission of the virus.
Yes the approved vaccines are safe. If you balance the risks, then taking the vaccine is much safer than taking your chances with COVID-19.