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How to predict an election
Forecasting election results is a sophisticated business.
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Understanding uncertainty: What was the probability of Obama winning?
This may seem like an odd question — after all, he’s won — but it opens up some deep philosophical issues surrounding probability. David Spiegelhalter investigates how probability can be defined.
Article
Understanding uncertainty
What's the risk of passive smoking? Or climate change? How big is the terrorist threat? And should we trust league tables? These issues concern all of us, but it's not always easy to make sense of the barrage of media information. David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, gives Plus his take on uncertainty.
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Is now a good time?
Mathematics is helping machines decide when is the best time to interrupt us with a call or email.