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A risky business: how to price derivatives

December 2008

A general formula for the multi-period case

The price for the option in an $n$ period model is given by $$C=\frac{1}{(1+r)^n}\sum_{k=0}^n {n \choose k} q^k (1-q)^{n-k}y_{u^k d^{n-k}}.$$ Here ${n \choose k}$ denotes the number of ways in which one can choose $k$ objects from a selection of $n$ objects (called the binomial coefficient — you can read more in the Plus article Making the grade: Part II).

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Kissing the frog: A mathematician's guide to mating

September 2008

Finding the Decision Numbers

As discussed in the main article, if the frogs are randomly numbered between 0 and 1, with the prince having the highest number, there is a sequence of decision numbers associated with the best strategy for choosing the top frog. Since we're meant to be doing some maths, we need some notation. We'll consider the general case with $N$ frogs, and let the number on the $j$th frog be $y_j$, $j = 1,2,\ldots,N$.

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Kissing the frog: A mathematician's guide to mating

September 2008

The 37% rule

The first question we need to answer is, why is the best strategy to throw back some number of frogs, and then kiss the next one that is better than all those you've seen so far? Well, what else could you do? All you know about the frogs that you've seen is how good they are relative to each other, which you can see from the numbers on their backs. When the first frog hops out, you have absolutely no information (the number on its back tells you nothing).

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Understanding uncertainty: The maths of surprises

You meet an old friend on holiday, you find your colleague shares your birthday, you win the lottery. Exactly how rare are these rare events? David Spiegelhalter investigates in his regular column on uncertainty and risk.