# bayes theorem

If you've flipped heads 10 times what's the next flip most likely to be?  Bayes' theorem has the answer, not just for the coin, but for the pursuit of science generally.

Trying to make a prediction about the world based on dodgy data? Then data assimilation has the answer!

As part of our series of interviews with early career researchers, Kweku tells us why he enjoys statistics, life as an early career researcher, and about a favourite mathematical moment.
This collection of articles looks at mathematics relevant to law and justice.
Find out why the formula we use to work out conditional probabilities is true!
David Spiegelhalter, one of our favourite experts on statistics, recently joined David Attenborough, Bill Bryson and other eminent contributors on the Royal Society's People of Science series. You can watch the video here.
It would be foolish to ignore evidence. Luckily Bayes' theorem shows us how to take it in into account.
In the previous article we looked at a psychological study which claims to provide evidence that certain types of extra-sensory perception exist, using a statistical method called significance testing. But do the results of the study really justify this conclusion?
London 2012 vowed to be the cleanest Olympics ever, with more than 6,000 tests on athletes for performance enhancing drugs. But when an athlete does fail a drug test can we really conclude that they are cheating? John Haigh does the maths.

England's performance in the World Cup last summer was thankfully overshadowed by the attention given to Paul the octopus, who was reported as making an unbroken series of correct predictions of match winners. David Spiegelhalter looks at Paul's performance in an attempt to answer the question that (briefly) gripped the world: was Paul psychic?

It's Monty Hall, only better!