When a new infectious disease enters a population everything depends on who catches it — superspreaders or people with few contacts who don't pass it on.  We investigate the stochastic nature of the early stages of an outbreak.

 We talk to David Spiegelhalter  about eggs, politics, coins and his new book The art of uncertainty.

Learn how lengths, areas, and volumes generalise to the concept of measure, and how this relates to integration and probability.

If you've flipped heads 10 times what's the next flip most likely to be?  Bayes' theorem has the answer, not just for the coin, but for the pursuit of science generally.

Trying to make a prediction about the world based on dodgy data? Then data assimilation has the answer!

The Abel Prize 2024 has been awarded to Michel Talagrand for ground breaking contributions to probability theory and functional analysis.