How do you adjust your approach when new information is coming in all the time? The answer lies with Bayes Theorem.
RCTs are the gold standard when it comes to testing whether an intervention, such as a new medical drug, works.
A research programme at the Isaac Newton Institute is investigating how to best discern cause and effect from data.
Cognitive biases shape how we understand data. Being aware of them gives us a better chance of avoiding bias.
What does it mean to say there's a 30% chance of rain today?
Does knowing statistics about a whole population tell you how they apply to you?
The way we talk about numbers affects the decisions people make - so think carefully about what you say!
How shocking is it when your risk of getting a particular disease doubles?
Weighing up risks is something we have to do every day and sometimes the stakes are high. Find out what to keep in mind when doing so!
How can statistics help us to make informed decisions. Find out with this brief explanation of hypothesis testing.
When a new infectious disease enters a population everything depends on who catches it — superspreaders or people with few contacts who don't pass it on. We investigate the stochastic nature of the early stages of an outbreak.
We talk to David Spiegelhalter about eggs, politics, coins and his new book The art of uncertainty.
